ABSTRACT
The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021 (annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19), war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and accel-eration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a dis-balance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war. © 2023, Politechnika Lubelska. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The study of theories of civilizational cycles under modern economic conditions is becoming increasingly important. Humanity can discern that long-term forecasts to a certain extent comply with theories of cyclical development. The issue of proving that the iteration of civilizational cycles in historical retrospect may correspond to their recurrence of the Fibonacci series remains open. The objective of the study is to do research into the wave theory in terms of economic development;to determine whether it is possible to apply the "principle of the golden ratio" based on the Fibonacci series;to explain how civilizational cycles are formed in the context of technological transitions;to identify patterns and characteristics of these fluctuations;to describe trends of further economic fluctuations. The object of study are economic relations in the context of civilization development, and their impact on of education, culture and personal freedom. Using the methodology of the Fibonacci numbers, namely, the rule of the golden ratio revealed the patterns of large economic fluctuations, explained the reasons for accelerating the pace of cyclicality and made a forecast of their further development. The results of the study allowed to claim that the current decade is decisive in terms of forming a new civilizational cycle of economic development. It is proved that the trend of the new cycle of civilization will be determined by the symbiosis of a human and artificial intelligence. © 2022, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as "a global pandemic", and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants' policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants' policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.
ABSTRACT
Ongoing global Covid-19 pandemic is not only health crisis but the economic challenge. The future of society depends on how successfully the authorities find a balance between imposition of stringent restrictions and economic development. Tax policies play a role in reducing losses caused by the Covid-19 lockdowns. All countries are taking tax measures to mitigate the impact of the effects of Covid-19 pandemic on society. While the Covid-19 pandemic has not yet been defeated, it is too early to draw conclusions about which tax measures against the effects of Covid-19 are efficient. On the other hand, correct trajectory of economic recovery can be missed if not to analyze the other countries experience. The object of this study is tax measures in the European countries against the effects of Covid-19. The subject of the study is the fuzzy set theory to assess the efficiency of tax measures in the European countries against the effects of Covid-19. The aim of the study is to find out which European countries have been more succeeded in tax measures implementing and type of their immediate crisis response. The analysis is carried out in 29 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that the number of tax measures against the effects of Covid-19 does not affect their efficiency and the most popular type of immediate crisis response has been the business cash-flow enhances. © 2022, Politechnika Lubelska. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The Covid-19 spread has become a major challenge for humanity in the last decade. It was believed that the Covid-19 vaccine development would have to end the pandemic. On the contrary, society has faced a new challenge which is that there are both countries that cannot afford to purchase the Covid-19 vaccine and inhabitants who do not trust new vaccine. Without adequate Covid-19 vaccination level, the global pandemic is not going to end. The object of this study is factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The subject of the study is the statistical analysis methods to compare and assess of factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The aim of the study is to find out which concerns about vaccination are more important and have an impact on the Covid-19 vaccination level in European countries. It is examined six factors;three of them relate to the government vaccine administration, the other three are about a public opinion on Covid-19 vaccination. The analysis is carried out in 22 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that public opinions factors are more important in pandemic and have more impact on the vaccination rate.